Sunday, 17 December, 2017

International Monetary Fund cuts United Kingdom growth forecast

Treasurer Scott Morrison SHARE Share on Facebook SHARE Share on Twitter TWEET Link
Erik Tate | 11 October, 2017, 00:29

The IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook report that the region would grow by 2.6 percent this year after 1.4 percent in 2016.

The Washington-based institution now expects the world economy to grow by 3.6 per cent this year and 3.7 per cent in 2018, both 0.1 percentage points higher than previously predicted in July.

"In India, growth momentum slowed, reflecting the lingering impact of the authorities' currency exchange initiative as well as uncertainty related to the midyear introduction of the country-wide Goods and Services Tax", the International Monetary Fund said in its latest World Economic Outlook report.

Finance Minister Amr El-Garhy said last month he expected inflation to drop below 15 percent by that time frame. The upward revisions in its growth forecasts including for the euro area, Japan, China, emerging Europe, and Russian Federation more than offset downward revisions for the United States, the United Kingdom, and India.

It projects world growth to increase from 3.2 per cent in 2016 to 3.6 per cent in 2017 and 3.7 per cent in 2018-an upward revision of 0.1 percentage point for both 2017 and 2018 relative to its April report. "The outlook for advanced economies has improved, notably for the euro area, but in many countries inflation remains weak, indicating that slack has yet to be eliminated, and prospects for growth in GDP per capita are held back by weak productivity growth and rising old-age dependency ratios".

Although the United Kingdom is an exception to the pattern of strengthening growth in the IMF's assessment, for this year and next the growth projections are stronger than two other G7 economies, Japan and Italy.

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"The Philippine economy is expected to grow by 6.6 percent this year before quickening to 6.8 percent in 2018 as public sector infrastructure spending gains pace while domestic consumption and exports remain buoyant", AMRO lead economist Sumio Ishikawa said in a statement.

If Korea does reach an economic growth of 3 percent, it would be the first time since 2014.

It also revised upwards the 2015 growth to 2 percent from the original estimate of 1.7 percent. The IMF said it now expects China to post 6.8% growth in 2017 and 6.5% next year, up from previous projections of 6.7% and 6.4% respectively.

The report says the global economy is experiencing a "welcome cyclical upturn after disappointing growth over the past few years".

The pace of China's credit growth has alarmed analysts in recent years.

The news comes at a time when G20 finance ministers and central bank governors are gathered in Washington for the semi-annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

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